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Over/Under: 10/28/2013
Is it possible to predict the future of the wrestling world? Given that ‘plans change’ might as well be the official motto of the WWE, this might be easier said than done, but in Over/Under, we’re still gonna try!
Each week, we’ll choose five scenarios and then predict how likely they are to come true, by saying whether it’s ‘over’ (i.e. we think it’s over the odds that it’ll happen) or ‘under’ (i.e. we think it’s under the odds). As usual, members of the site @TimWelcomed, @typicalROHfan and @TomBlackett are on hand to embarrass themselves by being the ones to make the predictions.
Summerslam 2014: The date that at least one member of The Shield will split off from the group.
The Shield are nearing the one year anniversary of their debut. One of the strongest WWE factions ever, when exactly will they split up?
Tim:
Seth Rollins will be the first out of The Shield. I’m kind of ready to see him or Ambrose break off and do their own things but also kind of sad about it because Rollins and Reigns are much needed in the tag team division. I can see this happening real soon. Maybe even in time for Wrestlemania.
UNDER.
typicalROHfan:
The Shield breakup is coming sooner rather than later in my guesstimation. I think around the Royal Rumble, Seth Rollins will leave or get kicked out. Everyone can tell he’s a much better babyface and a match with him as face vs. heel Ambrose is something I’d LOVE to see at Wrestlemania 30. Either way, I see Rollins being the person to be split off and I see it happening well before Summerslam.
UNDER.
Tom:
I’m going to say no – it’s inevitable, but Summerslam just feels a little too soon. With three ‘core’ teams in The Shield, The Usos and The Rhodeseseses, the tag division seems to finally have settled into a nice groove, and the only team I see splitting within the next few months is Cody and Goldust. I’m assuming Rollins is the one who’ll receive the eventual face turn, but I don’t know what he’ll be once they take him out of the tactical gear – he’s so good that I’m sure he’ll be fine in the long run, but it’d just be a shame to see him Ted Dibiase-ing after a Shield split. While there’s plenty of time between now and Summerslam to give him more of a character and a purpose to oppose the other two, they’re so strong as a team right now that I think they could go another year without needing to be divided.
OVER.
2.5: Total number of PPVs Antonio Cesaro will main event in WWE as a singles star.
With a rumored face turn coming for Antonio Cesaro and some impressive performances lately, what is his ceiling in WWE?
Tim:
Eh… This one made me battle some really sad thoughts. It could very well be that he is just another great talent that they never boost to where he deserves to be. However, I think he’ll stay there long enough that he’ll eventually be one of the top guys. At least, I hope. That means a lot of PPV main events.
OVER.
typicalROHfan:
This is the toughest one for me to predict. I can see Antonio Cesaro being a main eventer and entering that Alberto Del Rio/Sheamus/Randy Orton type range of superstar but I can also see him never getting higher than the mid-card title picture. It’s basically a coin flip. As much as I believe in his talent, there’s so much competition of talent at the same level of him with equal or higher ceilings so I’m going to take the under. Perhaps one title shot vs. Cena but the odds and say under.
UNDER.
Tom:
Main eventing as in a real main event, and not just for the Smackdown Title? Hmm. He seems like such a logical choice, though since when does that matter? I’ll say over, because I am an eternal optimist. They’re establishing him as the freakishly strong guy who can still have great matches, but the road to the main event in the WWE is a slow one, so it might be a while until we see him challenging guys like Cena and Punk on a PPV level (since he still has midget bulls to swing and Jack Swaggers to split up with). I think it’ll happen, but not for a while.
OVER.
0.5: The number of non-TNA USA wrestling promotions that AJ Styles will wrestle for in 2013
With the current storyline being AJ Styles leaving TNA with the championship, he is rumored to wrestle in Japan and Mexico soon. Between this and the uncertainty of TNA’s future, where will AJ wrestle?
Tim:
As much as I’d love AJ Styles showing up in PWG or anywhere outside of TNA in the United States, this is not going to happen. TNA will never allow it and if they do it won’t be available on DVD. I hate that frame of mind during scenarios like this but that’s just how the TV companies work, unfortunately.
UNDER.
typicalROHfan:
I don’t think the impending sale or official doom of TNA will take place in 2013 so his storyline will run through the year. Will TNA let him work for a USA indie promotion becomes the question? As they’re around, they seem to be cooling down with the anti-indie stance. Samoa Joe is working an obscure show vs. Willie Mack next week (as of the day this is posted) and TJ Perkins is still listed on the PWG roster. I’m going to be optimistic and go with yes. Hopefully in Ring of Honor or PWG, we will get an AJ appearance in 2013. I’m selfish like that. Eff your local fed!
OVER.
Tom:
Yeah, I don’t see it happening. Given TNA’s looser attitude towards guys competing for PWG and on indy shows, I was hoping they’d capitalise on AJ ‘leaving’ and have some footage of him showing up in other promotions. However, they don’t seem to want to do that with this storyline, since apparently having him wrestle for free and ride around in sports cars is much more compelling.
UNDER.
Royal Rumble 2014: The date Evan Bourne returns to WWE TV.
Evan Bourne has been out for quite some time. When the hell will we see him again?!
Tim:
I really am ready for this dude to come back. He’s been one of my favorites for years. Ideally he and Tyson Kidd will come back on the main roster together as a team. That’s something I have wanted for awhile, anyways. I think there’s a good chance that the Royal Rumble will probably be where he comes back if he’s going to. Yeah, let’s go with that.
UNDER.
typicalROHfan:
Man, it feels like years since we’ve seen Evan. I’m honestly wondering if WWE forgot he existed. I believe he worked a house show a few months and hasn’t done anything since then. Imagine him teaming with Kofi Kingston again reforming their fantastic tag team to face The Shield? I hope he’s back soon for more Air Boom but I’m going to have to go with the over as it’s even longer we don’t see Evan if ever again in WWE.
OVER.
Tom:
See you in PWG, Evan!
OVER.
1.5 Number of USA wrestling companies with a national TV deal in 2023
With TNA’s future in doubt and the landscape of pro wrestling in society, how do we view the industry 10 years from now?
Tim:
If all goes according to plan I will be alive to see if my guess is correct. Wrestling is a pretty sure thing for TV. TV is changing (especially with the news that Netflix has more subscribers than HBO) and will hopefully be an “a la carte” type service by then. It’s going to have to change to meet the demands of society. I believe WWE will definitely still be around in some form. I’m going to say we will have three wrestling companies with shows but by 2024 we will only have two and only one of those will be any good.
OVER.
typicalROHfan:
I don’t know, guys. I think it all depends on if WWE launches the next “boom period.” The climate in society and entertainment is a different breed from 1997. I continue to mention Floyd Mayweather going to WWE after his boxing career ends. The guy is one of a kind in evoking emotion of the consumer and he will help WWE get where they want to be.
Once that happens, wrestling in other places will thrive and yes, we’ll get other options. This question for me comes to down to will WWE get to a better state by then to make the industry more appealing and I optimistically say yes.
OVER.
Tom:
Yikes, what a question. In terms of ratings, wrestling seems sustainable enough that networks will aways be happy to air a somewhat presentable product (with ‘presentable’ being shorthand for ‘looks a bit like WWE’). However, TNA’s current troubles are proving that having a nationally aired show doesn’t mean you automatically become financially sustainable.
Since nobody seems to learn any lessons in wrestling though, even if TNA does go under, I’m sure there’d still be a ‘B’ company to succeed it (with the ‘B’ likely standing for ‘A Bischoff-Hervey Production’). From the perspective of the networks though, is there even a need for a second promotion? WWE could easily stretch out NXT to be two hours and have that fill any TNA-shaped hole, and I can’t imagine the ratings would be too different to the ones Impact is currently getting.
Thinking about what the TV landscape might look like in 2023 though, I wonder how common straight-to-VOD productions are going to be. Netflix seems to have had some success so far, so maybe there will be a few wrestling companies who bypass the networks entirely to have some shows be put directly online through services like that. Really, I think that’d be the best option (since network execs seem to have an awful, dated idea of what makes a wrestling company watchable), so I’m going to say under but with the caveat that we’ll see at least a couple of smaller companies with regular shows airing on major straight-to-VOD services.
UNDER.
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